Agricultural production estimated to break another record

Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts grain production in the 2022/23 season to reach unprecedented 313 million tonnes, an increase of 16%, chiefly driven by record soya bean output.

The growth reflects an estimated increase in the soya bean planted area, mostly over degraded pasture areas, and the preference of the growers for profitable oilseeds over other crops.

Soya beans

With an expected increase in productivity, Brazilian soya bean production should reach a record 153.5 million metric tons (mmt), 22% above the 2021/22 crop, comfortably maintaining Brazil as the world’s largest producer and supplier of the versatile oilseed, which is the main export commodity in gross weight after iron ore.

The planting of the 2022/23 soya bean crop in the predicted area is halfway through after a slow start due to rains in some producing regions. In Mato Grosso, the largest grain-producing state, the works are ending, and the crops are developing well, despite the irregularity of the rains.

According to the Federal Agency of Waterway Transport (ANTAQ), from January to September this year, 70,610 mmt of soya beans in bulk have been exported, mostly to Asian ports, about 10% less than in the same period last year. The main oilseed exporting port complex was Santos (35% of the volumes), followed by Itaqui (15%), Barcarena-Belém (12%), Paranaguá-Antonina (12%) and Rio Grande (6%).

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Brazilian soya bean production for the 2022/23 marketing year to reach a record 152 mmt, 20% more than the disappointing previous season.

The US agency estimates that Brazil exports nearly 90 mmt of the oilseed, an increase of 13% compared to last marketing year, considerably less optimistic than CONAB’s initial projection of an impressive 97 mmt.

Corn

Corn is second only to soya beans in agricultural product export volumes. For 2022/23, CONAB expects the production of this cereal grain to reach 126.4 mmt, a rise of 12% over the previous cycle. It estimates corn exports to reach 45 mmt, nearly 17% more than last season.

Until September this year, according to ANTAQ statistics, the volume of corn exported through Brazilian ports exceeded 24 mmt, almost twice as much as the same period last year, shipped mostly from the port complexes of Santos (35% of corn exports), Barcarena-Belém (22%), Paranaguá-Antonina (14%), and Itaqui (11%).

In its latest projection, the USDA estimated similar figures to those released by CONAB for the Brazilian corn crops in progress, with production nearing 126 mmt and exports rising to 47 mmt in 2022/23.

Areas of concern

The standard soya beans contracts drafted by the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), the most used in Brazilian FOB shipments, specify a maximum moisture content (MC) of 14%, as recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA), which is perceived as too high for some P&I clubs and cargo scientists. Soya bean with excessive MC and high temperature is biologically unstable and prone to self-heating and deterioration during long sea passages, such as those to Southeast Asian ports, where three-quarters of the Brazilian oilseed is exported.

Our publication Loading Soya Beans in Brazil – Practical Guidance, provides detailed information on this commodity and practical advice on loss prevention measures.

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