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In its first assessment just released, the Brazilian federal agricultural agency projected a record grain crop, unsurprisingly driven by increased soya bean production
Grain production 2024/25
The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a total grain production of 322.5 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2024/25 harvest. This represents an 8.3% growth compared to the past cycle, marking a new record if these optimistic estimates are confirmed by the end of the ongoing season.
While soya beans and maise (corn) – the top two commodities in Brazilian agribusiness, respectively – are the main contributors to this increase, rice production is also noteworthy, showing a significant rise in both planted area and yield. The cereal is now being increasingly grown in regions beyond Rio Grande do Sul. For the 2024/25 season, rice production is estimated at 12 mmt, up 13.8% from the previous season.
Soya beans
Brazil’s leading export commodity, soya bean, is expected to achieve a staggering production of 166 mmt during the 2024/25 season. This represents a 12.7% increase over the last cycle despite only a modest increase in planted area of 2.8%. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates an even higher Brazilian soya bean harvest, expecting an unprecedented output of 169 mmt, with 105 mmt of the oilseed earmarked for export, nearly three-quarters of which shipped to China.
Corn
CONAB estimates that Brazilian corn production for 2024/25, across the three yearly crops, will be approximately 119.7 mmt, a 3.5% increase over last season. In a more optimistic scenario, the USDA projects Brazilian corn output to reach 127 mmt, ranking behind the United States and China. Furthermore, the US agricultural agency predicts that Brazil’s corn exports will total 50.5 mmt, making it the second-largest exporter of this cereal grain after the USA.
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