Understanding Shortage Allowances
read more
Despite irregular rainfall, delayed planting, and reduced investments in technology and inputs, the 2025/26 season shows promising growth in area, output, and exports
2024/25 season closure
Record production and exports
Brazil has solidified its position as the world’s leading soya bean producer and exporter, shipping more than three-quarters of its exports to China. This is notable even amid China’s renewed purchases of US soya beans during the 2024/25 marketing year.
During the 2024/25 season, Brazil reached a record soya bean production of 171.5 million metric tons (Mmt), representing 40% of the global output, followed by the United States (119 Mmt), Argentina (51 Mmt), and China (20.7 Mmt). It exported 104 Mmt of the oilseed, covering 56% of the world’s exports, while the USA exported 51 Mmt, Argentina 7.9 Mmt, and Paraguay 6.6 mmt. The National Supply Company (CONAB), the federal agency responsible for managing the country’s agricultural and supply policies, estimates the closing season will end with over 107 Mmt of soya beans exported. Figure 1
Soya bean port handling
Soya bean exports rank second only to iron ore in shipping volume. According to the National Agency of Waterway Transport (ANTAQ), from January to October, Brazilian ports handled approximately 133 Mmt of the commodity, reflecting an 11% increased compared to the same period last year. Of this amount, around 101 Mmt were exported, marking a 7.4% year-on-year rise.
Until October, the top port complexes handling soya bean shipments were Santos, covering 32.6 Mmt (25%), Itaqui with 15.1 Mmt (11%), Vila do Conde (Barcarena) with 14.8 Mmt (11.%), Paranaguá-Antonina with 13 Mmt (9.8%), Itacoatiara with 11.7 Mmt (8.8%), and Rio Grande with 8.4 Mmt (6.4%). Figure 2
Main destinations
According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), Brazil exported 104 Mmt of soya beans valued at US$42.1 billion from January to November, representing 13.2% of total Brazilian exports. This positions the oilseed as the top commodity in terms of FOB sales. During this period, 79.3% of soya bean exports went to China, while other significant destinations included Spain (3.5%), Thailand (3%), Turkey (1.7%), and the Netherlands (0.9%). Figure 3
2025/26 season outlook
Bumper crop prospects
CONAB’s third assessment for the 2025/26 crop projects a record soya bean production of 177 Mmt, a 3.3% growth from the previous season. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in turn, maintained its projection of 175 Mmt for Brazil, followed by the United States (116 Mmt), Argentina (48.5 Mmt), and China (21 Mmt).
New export record
Export figures are similarly optimistic, with both CONAB and USDA predicting soya bean exports to exceed 112 Mmt, setting a new world record and accounting for nearly 60% of global exports. The US is expected to export 44.5 Mmt, Argentina 8.3 Mmt, and Paraguay 7.7 Mmt. Figure 4
The oilseed is poised to remain Brazil’s leading commodity by revenue, significantly contributing to a positive trade balance. Although CONAB indicates that weather irregularities and reduced technological investments might impact productivity in specific regions, the overall outlook remains optimistic due to the anticipated growth in planted area and production.
Please read our disclaimer.
Related topics:
