Amazon Dry Season: Authorities Warn of Critic...
read more
Proactive emergency measures and El Niño warnings signal severe operational disruptions for shipping at Brazil’s Northern Arc river ports
Background
The “Amazon Summer”
While the rest of Brazil experiences its lowest average temperatures between June and September, the Amazon basin undergoes its hottest and driest period, historically referred to locally as the “Amazon Summer”. Although seasonal droughts are a recurring natural feature and navigation restrictions are generally predictable, the rapid escalation and severity of this complex climate phenomenon have increased significantly.
Following the unprecedented water crises of recent years, the latest forecasts from state and federal monitoring bodies indicate that the upcoming dry season could match or even surpass previous historical extremes. The Northern Arc corridor has become a primary pillar of Brazilian trade, now handling over 53% of the nation’s soya bean and maize (corn) exports. Consequently, falling river levels are no longer considered isolated regional issues, but major risks to national agribusiness competitiveness.
Pre-emptive legal framework
Marking a significant shift from the reactive emergency responses of past crises, regional authorities are now taking early administrative action. The State Government of Amazonas has declared an environmental and climatic state of emergency across its municipalities. This legal mechanism enables local governments to streamline resource allocation, fast-track emergency dredging contracts, and coordinate early relief to vulnerable riverine communities before isolation occurs.
The Civil Defence of Amazonas, alongside the Centre for Management and Operational System of the Amazon Protection (CENSIPAM), confirmed that emergency response teams are already being deployed regionally to mitigate the severe environmental, social, and economic impacts expected in the second half of the year.
Political developments
At the federal level, a specialised situation room coordinated by the Chief of Staff’s Office—with participation from multiple ministries and public agencies—has been established to anticipate logistics protection measures. However, the legal landscape has become politically sensitive following indigenous community mobilisations against a federal decree, which had initially approved privatised waterway exploration and led to the temporary occupation of the Cargill terminal in Santarém, on the Tapajós River. Demanding adequate consultation and environmental safeguards, these actions prompted the Federal Government to officially revoke the decree and suspend certain waterway agenda items. The current challenge lies in balancing social legitimacy with the objective requirement for predictable river level maintenance.
Federal Court of Accounts’ criticism
A recent Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) audit of federal waterway policy highlighted systemic weaknesses in data collection, planning, and governance, noting that a lack of long-term structural public policy directly increases the ‘Brazil Cost’ and forces cargo onto stressed road or rail systems when the Northern Arc loses capacity during strong crop cycles.
El Niño and the ‘Seesaw Effect’
Meteorological bulletins from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and CENSIPAM attribute the severe prospects to a prolonged climate water deficit driven by a high probability of Super El Niño conditions developing in the second half of 2026, with compounding effects potentially stretching well into 2027. A residual “seesaw” climate pattern has created a drastic, volatile shift in the biome: although the year began with heavy rainfall and relatively high river levels, rising global temperatures and the lingering footprint of the El Niño phenomenon are causing rivers to drop significantly and violently.
Forecasters warn that the traditional four-month dry spell is extending into a five-to-six-month crisis, rapidly drying out regional vegetation and exponentially increasing the risk of widespread wildfires during its most critical stages.
Impact on Shipping and Logistics
River navigation disruptions
The impending rapid drops in river levels pose an immediate threat to the major navigable arteries of the Northern Arc ports, specifically along the Amazon, Madeira, and Solimões rivers. During previous severe droughts, maritime and waterway authorities were forced to implement drastic operational restrictions, including:
- Draft reductions: Severe draft restrictions reducing vessel and barge carrying capacity by up to 50%.
- Navigation bans: Prohibition of night navigation in critical river stretches, such as the Tobocal Passage and the mouth of the Madeira River.
Increased transit costs
Heightened draft and under-keel clearance (UKC) limitations, coupled with the eventual enforcement of Low Water Surcharges (LWS) by major container carriers, contribute to a reduction in carrying capacity and increased transit costs for shipowners and cargo owners. While regulatory bodies such as the National Waterway Transport Agency (ANTAQ) monitor LWS fees to prevent pricing abuse, carriers may reinstate them if the Rio Negro in Manaus drops below critical operational thresholds.
Industry alert
The Federation of Industries of the State of Amazonas (FAE) and local business networks have issued urgent advisories to industrial producers and merchants operating within the Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM). Businesses are strongly urged to pre-emptively stock up on raw components, fuel, water, and essential consumer goods while the waterways remain fully navigable, preventing severe supply chain bottlenecks ahead of the peak year-end retail season.
Emergency dredging
The National Department of Transport Infrastructure (DNIT) is mobilising for emergency dredging on the Amazon, Solimões, and Madeira rivers to mitigate severe drought impacts. The Association of Private Port Terminals (ATP) and the Brazilian Association of Cabotage Shipowners (ABAC) have strongly advocated for maintenance dredging campaigns to be completed by August, prior to the arrival of the severe low-water peaks in October.
DNIT confirmed that critical bathymetric survey campaigns commenced in mid-June and should be finalised in July to pinpoint the areas of greatest concern.
Recommendations for Shipowners
As river levels fluctuate daily during a severe dry season, conditions can deteriorate rapidly. Shipowners, operators, and masters intending to fix vessels or transit the Amazon basin during this period should consider the following precautionary measures:
- Maintain close liaison: Routinely check prevailing local draft limits, bathymetric updates, and regulatory notices with port agents and terminal operators prior to entering the river system, and maintain a continuous watch on VHF channel 16.
- Review clearance requirements: Strictly adhere to the latest under-keel clearance (UKC) parameters issued by the local Captaincy of the Ports (CFAOC).
- Monitor crew comfort: Ensure shipboard heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are fully operational and regularly maintained to comply with local labour mandates regarding extreme thermal discomfort during the peak dry season.
- Updated charts and revised navigation equipment: Ensure nautical charts are up to date, and navigation equipment –including two independent operational radars and two working anchors– is tested and fully functional before entering or leaving the Amazon ports.
- Heighten ship security: The Amazon region is highly susceptible to armed robbery, with boarding incidents increasing during the dry season. Ships and barge convoys –especially those carrying fuel products– are particularly vulnerable to attacks. Crews must remain vigilant for nearby convoys and small craft (such as barges, riverboats, mining rafts, and canoes), many of which are constructed from wood and are difficult to detect with standard shipborne navigation radar equipment.
- Conduct rigorous contractual reviews: Given the severe draft constraints, shipowners and operators must thoroughly review charter parties, contracts of carriage, and logistics service agreements. Particular attention must be paid to clauses on partial loading, transhipment, deviation, waiting time, demurrage, force majeure, and the strict allocation of additional operational costs.
Conclusion
As the 2026 dry season approaches, navigating the Amazon river system requires heightened structural foresight rather than reactive adjustments. Given the shifting regulatory framework, looming Super El Niño conditions, and the significant risk of draft reductions, ship operators and agents must maintain continuous communication with local maritime and port authorities. Real-time coordination and proactive contract management remain vital to sustaining operational integrity across the Northern Arc corridor during this volatile climatic cycle.
Please read our disclaimer
Related Topics:
