Another Soya Bean Record-Breaking Season
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As Brazil concludes a record-shattering 2025/26 marketing season, recent estimates point to an even stronger throughput in the upcoming 2026/27 cycle
Production Drivers and Challenges
The Brazilian soya bean sector continues to achieve unprecedented growth, solidifying its position as the world’s leading producer and exporter of this versatile oilseed. This expansion is driven by strategic expansion in planted area, advances in agricultural technology, and strong international demand – anchored by a massive reliance on the Chinese market. As the 2025/26 marketing year concludes, Brazilian agribusiness is poised for new record volumes and gains in the forthcoming 2026/27 cycle. However, producers still face challenges, including elevated interest rates, rising input costs, and the effects of El Niño weather patterns.
Closing 2025/26 Season
Record-Shattering Soya Bean Output
As Brazilian producers wrap up the 2025/26 season, both the National Supply Company (CONAB) and its counterpart, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), estimate Brazil’s soya bean production at a record 180.5 million metric tonnes (mmt). This marks a notable 5.3% growth year-on-year, keeping Brazil well ahead of its main competitors, the United States (116 mmt) and Argentina (49.5 mmt). Both agencies project total Brazilian soya bean sales for this season to reach an unprecedented 115 mmt, followed by the US (41.4 mmt), Argentina (9 mmt), and Paraguay (8.2 mmt). Figures 1 & 2
First-Half FOB Sales
Data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) indicates that Brazilian soya bean sales from January to July 2026 reached 83 mmt, 7.5% higher than the same period last year, with FOB revenues amounting to US$ 35 billion (+15.3%), an average of US$ 400/tonne (+ 7.3%), ranking the oilseed the first item of Brazil’s export basket during this period. As usual, China was by far the main importer, buying 58 mmt of the commodity in the first semestre, covering 70% of the sales, followed by Spain (4.1%), Turkey (3.2%), Thailand (3%), and Pakistan (2.3%). Figure 3
Expanding Domestic Soya Bean Crushing
Brazil’s industrial soya bean crushing remains strong, sustained by steady global demand and consecutive record highs in output and trade volumes. According to USDA and CONAB data, the country’s soya bean meal (seedcake) processing is expanding steadily, rising from 41.5 mmt in the 2022/23 marketing year to a projected record of 50 mmt in the upcoming 2026/27 cycle. This growth is fuelled by domestic crush operations and scaling infrastructure to meet both internal feed needs and international demand. On the export side, favourable global market prospects have prompted federal agricultural agencies to revise Brazil’s soya bean meal shipping forecasts upwards for consecutive seasons. The outlook for 2025/26 has been increased to 25 mmt, while the projection for 2026/27 stands at an unprecedented 27 mmt. These updates highlight the country’s strengthening position in international protein meal trade, moving in step with rising worldwide commodity prices and increased purchases from key international markets. Figure 4
Promising Prospects for 2026/27
Another Bumper Crop Expected
Looking ahead to the 2026/27 marketing year, the USDA’s early global forecasts suggest Brazil will surpass its previous records once again. The US agency estimates the soya bean harvest will reach 186 mmt, accounting for over 40% of total global output. Export volumes are expected to climb to 118 mmt, while domestic crushing facilities are forecast to process 65 mmt of soya beans, capitalising on high international margins. Soya bean export prices, which experienced minor fluctuations in mid-July due to global weather shifts, have stabilised and continue to track closely with global benchmarks, keeping Brazilian oilseed highly competitive at international ports. Figure 5
Logistics and Port Infrastructure Evolution
The exceptional volumes of the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons are placing significant demands on national port and transport infrastructure. While traditional southern ports such as Santos and Paranaguá continue to handle the lion’s share of exports, the Northern Arc trade corridor has become a vital route for moving grains from the Midwest and Northern frontiers, particularly during the Amazon wet season in the first half of the year.
Logistical integration has significantly improved with the development of the North-South Railway (EF-151), primarily benefiting the ports of Itaqui and Santos, as well as expanded river barge networks in the northern ports. Despite occasional operational hurdles, such as an indigenous occupation at a major soya bean facility in Santarém early this year, the Northern Arc – including terminals in Itacoatiara and the recently opened Novo Remanso terminal upriver on the Amazon – has stabilised. These routes reduce distances and facilitate backhauling, enabling lorries and river barges to carry fertilisers back to inland farms, thereby sustainably lowering overall production and transport costs within the Amazon river system.
Regulatory Turnaround
The regulatory landscape underwent a major shift last July with the release of the Brazil-China Sustainable Soya Bean Supply Chain Guide. Developed by the China Chamber of Commerce of Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products (CFNA) alongside the World Resources Institute (WRI), the guide represents a significant milestone for Brazilian oilseed producers. Chinese buyers have dropped plans to impose stricter, zero-deforestation controls modelled on the private and rigorous Soya Bean Moratorium. Instead, they now officially recognise Brazil’s domestic environmental legislation – notably the stringent Forest Code (Federal Law 12,651/2012, as amended)– as the sole benchmark for compliance. Backed by the Mato Grosso State Soya Bean and Maize Producers Association (Aprosoja MT), the framework relies exclusively on statutory mechanisms such as the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) for compliance verification.
Quality Standards Update
Discussions to Lower Moisture Content
On the domestic regulatory front, though progressing slowly, discussions between MAPA and agricultural stakeholders regarding proposed updates to official Brazilian soya bean grading standards are ongoing. Proposals to lower the maximum permitted moisture content (MC) from the current 14% to 13% have met resistance from farmers who are concerned over mass loss and short-term equipment costs. Nevertheless, aligning with international standards remains a governmental priority to maintain long-term competitiveness in Asian and European markets.
As long as the maximum allowable MC remains at 14% in accordance with standard sales contracts drafted by the National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), shipowners will continue to face heightened commercial exposure during long-haul voyages, particularly those to Asia.
Cargo Damage Mitigation
High inherent moisture frequently triggers microbiological degradation and self-heating, particularly when alongside a high cargo temperature, leading to potentially costly cargo damage claims upon discharge. To mitigate these risks, shipowners and masters are advised to enforce strict loss-prevention measures:
- Appoint independent, reliable surveyors for loading monitoring and regular cargo sampling for on-spot testing of cargo moisture content and temperature at loading.
- Reject any cargo not in apparent condition. This includes beans showing signs of discolouration, dampness, bin-burning, and contamination with foreign matter or residues from other commodities previously handled at the loading terminal. If port operators or shippers refuse to offload cargo that is not eligible for ‘clean on board’ mate’s receipts and bills of lading, the Master must clause these documents to reflect the actual pre-shipment condition of the cargo.
- During the voyage, apply the three-degree rule strictly, based on the average cargo temperature at each cargo hold as measured upon loading. Maintain meticulous, time-stamped logbook entries and comprehensive ventilation logs of all ventilation practices throughout the port-to-port passage.
Conclusion
As the 2025/26 marketing year draws to a close with exceptional export revenues, the market anticipates a substantially larger harvest in the forthcoming 2026/27 season, bolstered by improved logistics and updated phytosanitary agreements with major buyers. However, despite the optimistic outlook, achieving projected records will largely hinge on mitigating the impact of the upcoming Super El Niño, which threatens to disrupt the growing cycle, reduce field yields, and cause significant restrictions in transporting the commodity from Amazon ports as they brace for harsh drought conditions from September through the end of the year.
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